Bitcoin (BTC) starts the new week with optimism as traders greet the first green weekly candle in over a month.
Sức mạnh giá BTC dường như đang dần cải thiện sau tháng 8 và đầu tháng 9 yếu, với BTC/USD tăng lên 27,000 đô la.
Việc đóng cửa hàng tuần vững chắc cung cấp bối cảnh cho những gì hứa hẹn sẽ là một vài ngày thú vị, trong đó sẽ bao gồm một sự kiện kinh tế vĩ mô quan trọng của Hoa Kỳ như một động lực biến động tiềm năng.
The U.S. Federal Reserve will meet to decide on interest rate policy, and any surprises could have significant repercussions for risk assets, including crypto.
Elsewhere, things are looking promising for Bitcoin, with network fundamentals set to surge higher to new records.
Sức mạnh “dưới mui xe” cũng được phản ánh tương tự trong hành vi hodler, với số lượng ví tiếp tục tăng cao hơn bất kể hành động giá của BTC.
Cointelegraph xem xét các chủ đề này và hơn thế nữa khi Bitcoin bắt đầu tuần có khả năng được chờ đợi nhất trong tháng 9.
Nhà giao dịch để mắt đến giá BTC “đáy cục bộ”
Bitcoin có ít biến động vào cuối tuần, nhưng các điều kiện giao dịch bình tĩnh hơn đã bị thách thức trong tuần mới, dữ liệu từ Cointelegraph Markets Pro và TradingView cho thấy.
Mức đóng cửa hàng tuần vào ngày 17 tháng 9 đã sớm nhường chỗ cho sự biến động tăng giá và tại thời điểm viết bài, những con bò đực đang cố gắng xây dựng trên nền tảng đó để phá vỡ mức cao mới trong tháng.
Do đó, nhà giao dịch nổi tiếng Credible Crypto đã gợi ý rằng vùng cuối tuần cũng có thể hình thành “đáy cục bộ”.
“Khu vực này tiếp tục được bảo vệ, với những người mua bước vào đây một lần nữa. Việc tạo ra một đầu/cơ sở địa phương đã được hình thành imo,” anh nói với những người đăng ký X (trước đây là Twitter) qua đêm, cùng với biểu đồ thanh khoản sổ đặt hàng trên sàn giao dịch lớn nhất toàn cầu
“Tôi nghĩ rằng chúng tôi sẽ sớm đẩy lùi lên 27k+.”
A prior post noted the lack of promise in shorting at weekend levels, with bid liquidity improving.
Trong khi đó, việc đóng cửa hàng tuần khiến Michaël van de Poppe, người sáng lập và Giám đốc điều hành của công ty thương mại Eight phấn khích, người đã chứng kiến sự hỗ trợ chính được giữ ở mức trung bình động theo cấp số nhân (EMA) 200 tuần.
“Tuần tới chúng ta nên tiếp tục làm như vậy và giá bắt đầu trông tương tự như chu kỳ 2015/2016.”
Van de Poppe uploaded a chart showing the interplay between the spot price and the 200-week EMA, currently at $25,700, since 2020.
“Thị trường đang củng cố với mức đóng cửa hàng tuần mạnh mẽ trên đường EMA 200 tuần của Bitcoin. Cơ hội điều chỉnh được hoàn thành đang tăng lên từng ngày”, ông nói thêm trong một bài đăng riêng.
Some are staying sober on the outlook for Bitcoin into 2024. Among them is popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who continues to eye the potential for a bearish double-top pattern to play out on weekly timeframes.
“Make no mistake – Bitcoin is in an early stage Bull Market,” he wrote in part of weekend X analysis.
“Long-term the outlook is bullish. Mid-term? Over the next 7 months, we may or may not get 1 last major correction. Will it happen? It would be wise to at least be ready for it if it does.”
FOMC volatility due with rate pause odds at 99%
This week, the word on everyone’s lips is FOMC — the Federal Open Market Committee — which will meet to decide on interest rates going forward.
If history is a guide, the Sept. 20 decision will induce at least some form of volatility across risk assets, with Bitcoin and crypto no exception.
The landscape surrounding the latest FOMC meeting is mixed, with last week’s macro data showing inflation beating expectations, yet markets overwhelmingly believe that the Fed will not raise rates further to combat it.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds of rates remaining unchanged are almost unanimous.
This could reduce the impact of the FOMC event, but conversely, a curveball decision that goes against market appraisals would be felt all the more keenly.
“This week sets up the rest of 2023,” financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized while highlighting upcoming macro data releases and more.
“Fed guidance on Wednesday sets the tone for the next few meetings. Expect to see lots of volatility this week.”
Key Events This Week:
1. Building Permits data – Tuesday
2. Housing Starts data – Tuesday
3. Fed Interest Rate Decision – Wednesday
4. Fed Press Conference – Wednesday
5. Jobless Claims – Thursday
6. Existing Home Sales data – Thursday
This week sets up the rest of 2023.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 17, 2023
Explaining the likely outcome of FOMC, crypto and macro insight resource Ecoinometrics suggested that the market odds were no surprise based on Fed signals.
“There will be no rate hike at the FOMC meeting on September 20. That’s what the Fed Funds futures are pricing,” it wrote at the weekend.
“And actually they have been very consistent about that for a long time now. The fact that the latest inflation numbers aren’t exactly going in the right direction didn’t change anything to that.”
An accompanying chart added that the market “never had doubts” about what would happen in September.
Difficulty, hash rate return to new records
Back to Bitcoin and a return to the “up only” style of fundamental growth is set to characterize the coming week.
Mining difficulty, which dipped 2.65% at its last automated readjustment two weeks ago, will cancel out its losses on Sept. 19.
The latest estimates from BTC.com suggest that difficulty will increase by a solid 4.6% — taking it to new all-time highs in the process.
2023 has seen a broad uptrend in difficulty challenged only briefly, even as spot price action delivered more challenging conditions.
The story is the same for hash rate — the estimated processing power deployed by miners — which continues to set new records of its own.
A conspicuous spike into the new week has become a talking point in its own right, with optimism increasing among commentators as a result.
Who is responsible for the hashrate jumping up almost 20%? Who do you think?
This is surreal.#btc #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/paIwb57DNm
— Bitcoin Bootcamp (@BTCbootcamp) September 17, 2023
“The bitcoin network hashrate is at an all time high,” Nicholas Cary, co-founder of Bitcoin data resource Blockchain.com, noted earlier this month.
“What does this mean? The difficulty is a measure of how difficult it is to mine a Bitcoin block, or in more technical terms, to find a hash below a given target. A high difficulty means that it will take more computing power to mine the same number of blocks, making the network more secure against attacks.”
Blockchain.com estimated hash rate at 422 exahashes per second (EH/s) as of Sept. 17, while BTC.com currently puts the figure at 430 EH/s.
Bitcoin address numbers reach multiyear highs
Just as there is no stopping Bitcoin miners, the user base likewise appears to be relentlessly expanding.
The number of new BTC wallets being created is now at its highest since late 2017, the time of Bitcoin’s old all-time high of $20,000, data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows.
According to the firm’s address tracking metric, even the later trip to $69,000 failed to spark as big a reaction in new address creation.
Active addresses, however, do mimic mid-2021, returning to those levels for the first time this month.
The data was uploaded to X by Andre Dragosch, head of research at crypto investment firm Deutsche Digital Assets. Dragosch quizzed whether BTC price performance would copy the return to form across the Glassnode metrics.
“All-time high in addresses with 0.01 Bitcoin or less,” James Straten, research and data analyst at crypto insights firm CryptoSlate, added about further Glassnode data.
“Fifth or so strongest accumulation from this cohort in the past five years. This asset continues to be cornered by a small cohort.”
Crypto fear is never far away
While things may be looking up across the Bitcoin ecosystem, the average crypto investor is yet to regain their confidence.
Related: Bitcoin price all-time high will precede 2024 halving — New prediction
According to the latest data from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, the mood characterizing crypto continues to be one of “fear.”
The extent of the cold feet is modest — the Index, which normalizes sentiment on a 0-100 scale, is now just below its “neutral” 50 mark.
Fear has nonetheless dominated since mid-August, with price triggers a key influencer.
Analyzing net unrealized profit and loss data among the BTC supply, meanwhile, popular trader and analyst Titan of Crypto revealed what he called a “striking correlation” between this year’s environment and that seen in the run-up to previous Bitcoin bull runs.
“I think we might witness a similar price action as Bitcoin had in the first 2 cycles,” part of his commentary forecast.
#Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit / Loss striking correlation
– In 2012, 2016 as NUPL was contracting between Optimism / Anxiety and Hope / Fear areas BTC price was consolidating before resuming its run up.
– In 2019 as NUPL was shooting up Bitcoin price was rallying without a… pic.twitter.com/110OMhdGcW— Titan of Crypto (@Washigorira) September 17, 2023
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
