A Bitcoin (BTC) on-chain indicator, which tracks the amount of coin supply held by long-term holders (LTH) in losses, is signaling that a market bottom could be close.
Eerily chính xác Bitcoin pundit đáy
As of Sep. 22, approximately 30% of Bitcoin’s LTHs were facing losses due to BTC’s decline from $69,000 in November 2021 to around $19,000 now. That is about 3%-5% below the level that previously coincided with Bitcoin’s market bottoms.
For instance, in March 2020, Bitcoin price declined below $4,000 amid the Covid-19-led market crash, which happened when the amount of BTC supply held by LTH in loss climbed toward 35%, as shown below.
Tương tự như vậy, đáy tháng 12 năm 2018 của Bitcoin khoảng $3,200 đồng thời cùng với chỉ số lỗ LLTH tăng trên 32%. Trong cả hai trường hợp, BTC/USD theo dõi bằng cách bước vào một chu kỳ tăng dài.
Do đó, số LTHs thua lỗ trong một thị trường gấu điển hình có xu hướng đạt đỉnh trong phạm vi 30%-40%. Nói cách khác, giá Bitcoin vẫn có chỗ để giảm – có thể vào phạm vi $10,000-$14,000 – để “LTHS trong lỗ” để đạt được vùng đáy lịch sử.
Coupled with the LTH supply metric, which tracks the BTC supply held by long-term holders, it appears that these investors accumulate and hold during market downturns and distribute during BTC price uptrends, as illustrated below.
Do đó, thị trường bò giá tiếp theo có thể bắt đầu khi tổng nguồn cung do LLTH nắm giữ bắt đầu giảm.
Sự tích lũy Bitcoin mạnh
Meanwhile, the number of accumulation addresses has been increasing consistently during the current bear market, data shows. The metric tracks addresses that have “at least two incoming non-dust transfers and have never spent funds.”
Interestingly, this is different from the previous bear cycles that saw the number of accumulation addresses drop or remain flat, as shown in the chart above, suggesting that “hodlers” are unfazed by current price levels.
In addition, the number of addresses with a non-zero balance stands around 42.7 million versus 39.6 million at the beginning of this year, showing consistent user growth in a bear market.
BTC price technicals hint at more downside
Bitcoin is nevertheless struggling to reclaim $20,000 as support in a higher interest rate environment. Its correlation with U.S. equities also hints at more downside in 2022.
Related: Các nhà phân tích Bitcoin đưa ra 3 lý do tại sao giá BTC dưới $20K có thể là một ‘bẫy gấu ‘
From technical perspective, Bitcoin could drop further toward $14,000 in 2022 if its cup-and-handle breakdown pans out, as shown below.
Một động thái như vậy sẽ đẩy chỉ số “LLTH trong lỗ” nói trên về vùng đầu tư 32%-35%, mà cuối cùng có thể trùng với đáy trong thị trường giảm hiện tại.
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