Bitcoin (BTC) bắt đầu một tuần mới hầu như không bám vào 30.000 đô la khi “phân kỳ giảm giá” thiết lập giai điệu.
After a quiet weekend, BTC price action faces a potential pullback period within its broader bullish trend, traders say.
What could be on the menu for the market this week?
After a relative period of calm, external triggers are back for risk assets, with a slew of United States macroeconomic data releases combined with multiple speeches from Federal Reserve officials.
Thêm vào đó là một số động lực thú vị xung quanh việc mua BTC của Hoa Kỳ hiện đang diễn ra và công thức cho sự biến động là có.
Cointelegraph xem xét các yếu tố này và nhiều hơn nữa trong danh sách hàng tuần về những gì có thể di chuyển thị trường trong những ngày tới.
Hỗ trợ 30,000 đô la khập khiễng khiến các nhà giao dịch khao khát giảm giá BTC
Bitcoin có thể đã kết thúc tuần ở mức chỉ hơn 30.000 đô la, được xác nhận bởi dữ liệu từ Cointelegraph Markets Pro và TradingView, nhưng sức mạnh của nó bây giờ có vẻ kém thuyết phục hơn.
Việc giảm xuống vùng 20,000 đô la ngay sau đó đã thiết lập giai điệu cho các nhà giao dịch, những người tin rằng một khoảng thời gian thoái lui có thể đi vào trước khi đà tăng trở lại.
“Sẽ tìm kiếm sự tiếp tục xu hướng để một mức thấp khác cao hơn giữa giá hiện tại và $28K,” nhà giao dịch Skew giải thích trong dự báo ngắn hạn của mình.
“Điểm yếu rõ ràng khác dẫn đến sự phá vỡ cấu trúc 1W (mức cao bằng nhau & LL dưới 25 nghìn đô la).”
Fellow trader Jelle eyed a warning sign on weekly timeframes.
“Bitcoin locked in a weekly bearish divergence overnight,” he told Twitter followers about relative strength index (RSI) behavior after the candle close.
“Đã đến lúc chơi phòng ngự một thời gian. Thị trường tăng giá đang đến, nhưng pullback là một phần của trò chơi. Giá thầu thấp hơn, để xem.”
Đối với Crypto Tony, nhược điểm có thể được giới hạn ở mức 29,500 đô la, điều này bổ sung cho chuyến đi trước đó lên mức cao hàng năm mới vào tuần trước.
“Việc quét 29.500 đô la có ý nghĩa đối với tôi vì phe bò dường như yếu hơn và yếu hơn ngay bây giờ.
Một bài đăng tiếp theo đã thu nhỏ để dự đoán BTC/USD cao hơn tới 40% vào năm 2023, điều này vẫn được theo sau bởi một “sự điều chỉnh lớn hơn”.
8 diễn giả của Fed đồng hành cùng tuần dữ liệu vĩ mô lớn
Macro commentators have their work cut out this week as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) leads U.S. economic data prints.
Due on July 12, CPI showing inflation dropping will go some way to lessening a still-hawkish Fed.
Markets almost unanimously agree that interest rates will rise again after last month’s pause, with trend-beating data apt to spark some last-minute uncertainty.
CPI will be followed by Producer Price Index (PPI) a day later, while a total of eight Fed officials will deliver remarks on the economy and policy.
“Volatility is set to return to markets this week,” financial commentary resource, The Kobeissi Letter, forecast while summarizing the calendar.
Fed Speakers This Week:
1. Fed Vice Chair Barr – Monday
2. FOMC Member Daly – Monday
3. FOMC Member Mester – Monday
4. FOMC Member Bostic – Monday
5. FOMC Member Bullard – Tuesday
6. FOMC Member Kashkari – Wednesday
7. FOMC Member Mester – Wednesday
8. Fed Board…— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 9, 2023
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool put rate hike odds at 92% at the time of writing, slightly down from last week’s 95% figure.
Continuing, financial commentator Tedtalksmacro argued that core CPI would be the figure to watch for the Fed.
“Headline is expected to fall to 3.20% YoY, which would make for the lowest print since March 2021. The Cleveland Fed, University of Michigan + Truflation all anticipating a similar number,” he noted in part of a Twitter thread.
“Core CPI is expected to tick lower to 5.1% YoY, the lowest level since November 2021. Core remains the concern for the market, and I’d anticipate the market gives it more weight in it’s reaction on Wednesday.”
Bitcoin mining difficulty following hash rate to fresh record high
In a refreshing turnaround, Bitcoin network fundamentals are gearing up to hit new all-time highs in the coming days.
The latest estimates from BTC.com predict that network difficulty will jump by more than 5% — its largest single upward adjustment since late March.
Given stagnant price action, this is significant, speaking to ongoing competition in the mining sector and increasing belief in future profitability. In doing so, the difficulty will cancel out its previous dip to hit new record highs of around 53.2 trillion.
A similar story concerns hash rate, which by some estimations, crossed the 400 exahashes per second (EH/s) mark for the first time in recent days.
BTC price remains more than 50% below its 2021 peak, lending additional weight to the classic adage, “price follows hash rate.”
Commenting on what might come, Blockware mining analyst Joe Burnett suggested that Bitcoin would return to finish what it started after the 2020 breakout to pass its all-time highs three years earlier.
“During the 2017 bull run, there was no national mining ban that put half of the entire network hashrate out of business, and there were also no fake coins being sold by FTX, BlockFi, and Celsius,” he reasoned.
“Most are not ready for the next parabolic run.”
BTC supply shock “inevitable”
The recent filings for Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. has kickstarted a buying spree.
As Cointelegraph reported over the weekend, U.S. activity is back trending higher, vying with Asia when it comes to BTC supply ownership.
The implications for the dwindling supply become clear over longer periods, analysis argues, with just 7.5% of Bitcoin’s immutable 21 million coins left to mine.
“During this Bitcoin cycle, differently from the 3 previous cycles. the amount of Bitcoin available to trade decreased over time,” commentator Alessandro Ottaviani argued this weekend.
“If the trend continues, a supply shock is inevitable. It is only a matter of time, we just don’t know when. Being Bitcoiners, we can wait, because if we are Bitcoiners our Time Preference is low.”
Ottaviani đã tải lên một biểu đồ được gọi là “Mô hình HODL” – một công cụ phổ biến lập bản đồ nguồn cung sẵn có so với hiệu suất giá trong tương lai.
On the topic of ETFs, notably that of the largest global asset manager, BlackRock, Ottaviani added that the mainstream narrative was already switching to condoning Bitcoin instead of bashing it.
1/5
The “Blackrock effect” in the Bitcoin is already started.
One of the effects can be seen in the Bitcoin mining world. In the same week we have noticed 4different articles in Forbes in favor of Bitcoin Mining. #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/nXikYM8UtG
— Alessandro Ottaviani (@AlexOttaBTC) July 9, 2023
Big fish step up exposure
It is not just miners showing “confidence” when it comes to future Bitcoin profitability.
Related: AI has potential to send Bitcoin price over $750K — Arthur Hayes
As noted by research firm Santiment this weekend, the largest-volume Bitcoin investor cohorts are keenly buying, even amid stagnant BTC price conditions.
Since mid-June, so-called sharks and whales — entities with between 10 and 10,000 BTC — have increased their exposure by over 70,000 BTC.
“Bitcoin’s sharks and whales aren’t showing any signs of slowing down, even with prices beginning to get ‘boring’ in this $30k to $31k range,” Santiment commented.
“Since June 17th, 10 to 10k $BTC addresses have accumulated 71k more coins, equating to $2.15 billion.”
Separate data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows whale numbers — those with at least 1,000 BTC — at eight-month highs.
Magazine: Should you ‘orange pill’ children? The case for Bitcoin kids books
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
