Bitcoin ( BTC) bắt đầu tuần thứ hai của tháng Chín vẫn cố gắng củng cố $20,000 khi hỗ trợ khi những người bán nắm quyền kiểm soát.
Tiền điện tử lớn nhất xuất hiện từ một ngày cuối tuần ngang với mức đóng cửa hàng tuần gần như chính xác ở mức $20,000 – nhưng mức tâm lý đáng kể đó đã gặp khó khăn.
kỳ vọng đã được ưa chuộng hơn nữa trong tháng này – cái gọi là hiện tượng “Septembear” mà thường thấy giá BTC giảm điểm trong tháng Chín – và cho đến nay, đã có rất ít bằng chứng cho thấy năm nay sẽ khác với hầu hết.
BTC/USD giảm 1.5% vào tháng 9 năm 2022, và trong khi tổn thất là khiêm tốn, có rất nhiều chất xúc tác tiềm năng trên đường chân trời.
hoảng kinh tế vĩ mô vẫn là tên gọi của trò chơi ở nhiều nơi trên thế giới, sự nhấn mạnh ngày càng chuyển sang châu Âu khi cuộc khủng hoảng năng lượng mở ra và đồng euro đạt mức thấp nhất trong hai mươi năm so với đồng đô la Mỹ.
Chứng khoán cũng đang gặp khó khăn khi đối mặt với đồng USD vẫn mạnh, để lại ít chỗ cho một đột phá để tăng điểm cho tiền điện tử.
đó nói rằng, tín hiệu đáy giá BTC vĩ mô đã chảy trong những tuần gần đây, dẫn đến một số ít các nhà phân tích vẫn lặng lẽ tự tin về triển vọng.
Cointelegraph takes a look at five potential Bitcoin price triggers for the week ahead as $20,000 forms the key focus.
BTC chỉ đóng cửa 20.000 USD hàng tuần
Những con bò đực Bitcoin đã dễ dàng vào cuối tuần này vì sự thiếu biến động dẫn đến hai ngày dao động quanh $20,000.
Sự vắng mặt của định hướng tổng thể có nghĩa là dự báo giá hiện tại vẫn còn nguyên vẹn, thậm chí đóng cửa hàng tuần vẫn tiếp tục để lại thị trường đoán.
đó đến dưới hình thức thực tế chính xác $20,000 trên Bitstamp, tiếp theo là áp lực giá giảm trong những giờ đầu tiên của tuần mới, dữ liệu từ Cointelegraph Markets Pro và TradingView cho thấy.
Traders already expecting a retest of lower levels close to June’s $17,600, however, saw little reason to alter their perspective.
Going on vacation, lemme know when we reclaim 20.7k and head to 23k-ish. Thanks frens $BTC https://t.co/biYiFrDm4t
— CrediBULL Crypto (@CredibleCrypto) September 4, 2022
Nhà giao dịch nổi tiếng Il Capo của Crypto nhắc lại kế hoạch cho một sự bóp ngắn xuống $23,000, tiếp theo là đảo chiều với 16.000 USD là một sàn tiềm năng.
Trong khi đó, nhà giao dịch đồng nghiệp Ceds xác nhận rằng biểu đồ 4 giờ “tiếp tục dao động” sau khi bật lên từ mức thấp vào mức đóng cửa hàng tuần.
In his latest update, meanwhile, TMV Crypto revealed a downside bias on the same timeframes, highlighting relative strength index (RSI) data.
“H4 RSI is bearish at the moment. loosing 19700 would take $btc to sweep Aug Lows and closer to July lows of 18777,” it read.
“If bulls can flip 19986.5 levels on H4 as support will then be looking to long to 20.8.”
Data from on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators meanwhile showed bulls “fighting” for $20,000 at the close, with new bid support entering immediately below on the Binance order book.
“Be careful. This week is going to be spicy,” a subsequent tweet concluded following the close.
Europe energy crisis spooks macro stage
On macro markets, the Federal Reserve is due to take a back seat this week with important economic data next due on Sep. 13 in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for August.
There is little chance for risk asset traders to rest, however, as events in Europe are already providing a new theater for volatility.
As of Sep. 5, the euro is trading at its lowest against the U.S. dollar since September 2002, having passed under $0.99.
The weakness comes on the back of instability in energy markets. Russia, which was due to reopen its Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline at the weekend, suddenly changed course over maintenance issues, with gas supplies now set to be suspended indefinitely.
This in turn followed news that the European Union plans to implement a price cap on Russian energy in line with the G7, to which Russia responded with a threat to halt all energy imports.
As a result, gas markets are surging once more as the week gets underway, having previously plummeted from record highs.
European Gas jumps as much as 35% as #Russia keeps Nord Stream link shut. Now up 21%. pic.twitter.com/2SVRbOijKX
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) September 5, 2022
For Arthur Hayes, former CEO of derivatives giant BitMEX, the only way for the euro was likely down.
Reiterating a previous hypothesis from a blog post earlier this year, Hayes described the euro as entering a “doom loop” over the weekend.
“Either: 1. USD liquidity increases to bring down the value of the Dollar and help Europe afford its energy import bill Or 2. Europe reaches a Détente with Russia. I guess the 3rd option is turn off industry and residential heating,” he wrote.
Such is the extent of the crisis that even PlanB, creator of the Stock-to-Flow Bitcoin price models, suggested that a buy the dip opportunity should be second to basic needs — even with BTC/USD near two-year lows.
“People that have to choose between food and gas should not buy Bitcoin,” he tweeted last week.
U.S. dollar powers through two-decade highs
As last week, an enduring headwind for cryptocurrency and risk assets more broadly continues in the form of U.S. dollar strength.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has forged a tradition of hitting twenty-year highs throughout 2022, and September has been no exception to the trend.
With that said, DXY has passed 110 for the first time since June 2002 this week, with the euro just one of multiple fiat casualties resulting from its rampant bull run.
“The former resistance retested as support that basically nobody wants to see from the dollar,” Scott Melker, the popular trader and podcast host known as “The Wolf of All Streets,” summarized at the weekend.
“$DXY is currently breaking multi decade resistance at 110. $BTC is consolidating & broke its daily bear flag 2 weeks ago,” popular trader Roman continued.
“I have a hard time seeing a bullish case here if the DXY continues. I expect a dump across stocks & crypto.”
$DXY fresh local highs https://t.co/jIFEdQyp97 pic.twitter.com/XljPW18vdP
— Cheds (@BigCheds) September 4, 2022
Cheds meanwhile uploaded a DXY chart showing Bollinger Bands action demanding continued volatility on daily timeframes.
Hodlers continue to gain strength
In classic bear market style, long-term holders (LTHs) are knuckling down to weather the BTC price storm — and setting local records in the process.
Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode this week confirms that even coins last purchased just one year ago are increasingly becoming dormant.
Buyers, despite unrealized losses, are refusing to capitulate.
The percentage of the BTC supply now stationary in its wallet for a year or more has thus hit a new all-time high of 65.78%.
2022, Glassnode additionally shows, has seen a marked steepening of the one-year-or-more hodl trajectory, indicating resolve strengthening among the majority of LTHs.
At the same time, a complementary metric, the amount of coins being hodled or otherwise cut off from circulation overall, reached its highest level in almost two years.
Hodled or lost coins now total 7,464,791 BTC.
Last week, meanwhile, fellow monitoring resource Whalemap noted that the Bitcoin spot price had fallen below the aggregate realized price of coins between one and two years old.
“There has only been 3 times in the history of $BTC that it was below realised price of 1-2 year holders. Now is the 3rd,” the Whalemap team commented.
Realized price refers to the aggregate price at which a specific cohort of BTC last moved. Bitcoin’s combined realized price currently sits at around $21,600.
Sentiment returns to six-week lows
Overall, it seems that the crypto market has fully retraced its bullish phase, which began in the second half of July.
Related: The Bitcoin bottom — Are we there yet? Analysts discuss the factors impacting BTC price
This is epitomized, as ever, by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, the classic sentiment gauge th hit just 20/100 over the weekend.
Now firmly back in the “extreme fear” zone, the Index has more than halved over the past three weeks alone, pointing to the scale of the sudden cold feet being experienced by market participants.
The last time that 20/100 emerged was on July 18.
At the end of last month, meanwhile, PlanB characterized current sentiment as historically fearful based on the distance between spot price and realized price.
This will not stay blue forever. Macro and markets may be different, but humans don’t change, human behavior is driven by greed (red) and fear (blue). pic.twitter.com/gTh6hMg70P
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) August 29, 2022
“IMO everybody and their mother is expecting a worldwide mega recession and all markets collapsing, i.e. most of it must be priced in. The slightest hint of recovery will pump markets,” he added in associated comments.
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