‘Làn sóng thấp hơn’ cho tất cả các thị trường? 5 điều cần biết trong Bitcoin tuần này

Bitcoin (BTC) bắt đầu một tuần trước Giáng sinh với một tiếng rên rỉ như một phạm vi giao dịch chặt chẽ cho BTC bulls ít cổ vũ.

Đóng cửa hàng tuần chỉ trên $16,700 có nghĩa là BTC/USD vẫn không có biến động lớn trong bối cảnh thiếu định hướng thị trường tổng thể.

Sau khi thấy hành vi giao dịch thất thường xung quanh bản in dữ liệu kinh tế vĩ mô mới nhất của Hoa Kỳ, cặp tiền này đã trở lại trạng thái quá quen thuộc. Điều gì có thể thay đổi nó?

Đó là câu hỏi trên môi của mỗi nhà phân tích khi thị trường khập khiễng vào Giáng sinh với rất ít để cung cấp.

Thực tế là khó khăn cho Bitcoin hodler trung bình – BTC đang giao dịch dưới đây hai năm và thậm chí năm năm trước. “FUD” hầu như không có nguồn cung thiếu nhờ sự phóng xạ FTX và lo ngại về Binance.

Đồng thời, có những dấu hiệu cho thấy các thợ mỏ đang hồi phục, trong khi các chỉ số trên chuỗi đang báo hiệu rằng thời điểm là thích hợp cho một đáy giá vĩ mô cổ điển.

Giá giao ngay BTC: “Đầu tư” hoặc “xay chậm?”

Even that which accompanied U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary was short lived, and BTC/USD has since returned to an arguably frustrating status quo.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView proves the point — since the FTX scandal erupted in early November, Bitcoin has seen hardly any noticeable price movements at all.

Đối với các nhà bình luận thị trường, câu hỏi là do đó nó sẽ cần những gì để mọi thứ có một lượt khác, lên hoặc xuống.

Nhằm mắt đến mức thoái lui của Fibonacci trên biểu đồ hàng tuần, nguồn tài nguyên phân tích Stockmoney Lizards mạo hiểm rằng BTC/USD đang ở “hỗ trợ chính”.

Should the area around $16,800 begin to disappear, the next one is at around $12,500.

Một biểu đồ khác từ cuối tuần so sánh những gì nó gọi là “washout cuối cùng” cho Bitcoin trong các thị trường gấu trong quá khứ. Điều này củng cố ý tưởng rằng BTC/USD có thể gần như được thực hiện “sao chép” các cấu trúc đáy vĩ mô trước đó.

Others believe that the worst is yet to come for the current cycle. Among them is popular trader and analyst Crypto Tony, who is among those targeting a low potentially around $10,000.

“So in 2023 I am expecting BTC to begin to form a bottoming pattern at the lower boundaries of the range we currently sit in, along with the volume support around $11,000 – $9,000,” he reiterated in a Twitter thread this weekend.

“Cho dù chúng ta đầu hàng hay một cuộc xay chậm sẽ được nhìn thấy.”

He added that the “accumulation stage” following mass capitulation would only come further on in 2023, as Bitcoin gears up for its next block subsidy halving event.

Dữ liệu mới của Mỹ do phân tích dự đoán rủi ro tài sản lặn

After last week’s drama courtesy of inflation data and the Fed, it is safe to say that the coming week will provide somewhat less pressure for Bitcoiners.

That said, U.S. third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth is due, this estimated to flip positive after Q2 saw a 0.9% retraction.

This is significant, as at the Q2 print, the U.S. technically fell into a recession, despite the best efforts of politicians to deny that the financial picture was as dire as the data implied.

As market investor Ajay Bagga notes, however, an overly strong GDP reversal would give the Fed license to continue aggressive interest rate hikes to tame inflation — something unwelcome for risk assets across the board, including crypto.

“US Atlanta Fed US GDPNow model estimate for real US GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 3.2 % on December 9, down from 3.4 % on December 6,” he wrote in an update last week.

“Very strong US GDP reading from a mostly accurate estimator. Fed will hike and continue hiking.”

Beyond GDP, the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) is also due, a measure which the Fed keenly eyes when taking policy changes into account.

In its latest market update on Dec. 17, trading firm QCP Capital likewise drew attention the PCE impact.

“Thanks to the Fed, whatever we’re trading now, we’re just trading inflation (and wage) prints,” it summarized.

QCP nonetheless had a word of warning for risk asset markets, this coming in the form of a leg down for everyone, crypto included, in the near future.

“As we’ve been writing, this Q4 rally has set up the perfect 4th wave, with a final 5th wave lower incoming for all markets – S&P/Nasdaq, 2yr/10yr, USD and BTC/ETH,” it stated.

Crypto Tony shared that sentiment, predicting what he called an “impulse low” across stocks indices before a bounce back.

“I was looking for a push up to create a double top around 4320, but we failed to get there and dumped prior,” analysis of S&P 500 performance read.

“Same picture here where I am looking for another impulse low to complete the WXY pattern I am seeing.”

Binance CEO calls “FUD” as foul play claims continue

Where FTX began, Binance is now following.

That is the overriding impression from a sweep of crypto media at the start of the week, with Binance firmly on the radar as it battles what CEO Changpeng Zhao has repeatedly called “FUD.”

The world’s largest crypto exchange by volume has encountered a backlash from the media and users alike in recent weeks as its attempts to prove its reserves fails to convince.

As Cointelegraph reported, among the latest events is Binance’s auditor deleting its complementary findings about the exchange’s financial promises.

Reuters, a report from which Binance publicly rebuffed, has meanwhile given way to a slew of further misgivings, among them a blog post claiming suspicious activity between Binance and its U.S. counterpart, Binance U.S.

“These findings neatly dovetail with the previous reports by Forbes and Reuters indicating that Binance.US was a clever trick designed to fool regulators and customers,” the post, from an entity calling itself Dirty Bubble Media, concludes.

“However, with the collapse of FTX everyone is taking a closer look at the crypto industry. We doubt that Binance’s regulatory Tai Chi will allow them to evade the long arm of the law for much longer.”

Zhao meanwhile continues to give no time to any form of accusations, on Dec. 17 reiterating his “FUD” perspective. He subsequently retweeted words from Ryan Selkis, founder of analytics platform Messari, in which he stated that there was a “xenophobia” element to Binance criticism.

“A good chunk of Binance FUD is just thinly veiled xenophobia,” Selkis wrote over two tweets.

“I’m all for the stress test on deposits and think it’s bad that such a high percentage of volumes runs through a single exchange. I also don’t love the tone of some of the critiques. Sorry!”

Nonetheless, Binance remains one of the top potential BTC price triggers, as Cointelegraph noted last week.

Miners up the competition

After its biggest decrease in nearly 18 months, Bitcoin’s network difficulty is due to start rising again this week.

According to estimates from BTC.com, the next bi-weekly difficulty readjustment will see an increase of around 3.8%.

This has implications for miners, who have experienced considerable upheaval in the weeks since FTX sent BTC/USD down by up to 25%.

With profits squeezed, concerns began to appear that miners were due another major capitulation event, and that they would withdraw from their activities en masse.

As Cointelegraph recently reported, however, not everyone agrees — the latest interpretations of the data have led to the conclusion that the majority of acclimatizing has already taken place.

With difficulty due to rise again, this theory remains a valid observation, as rising difficulty implies steeper competition among miners, rather than a retreat.

Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode additionally shows the 30-day decrease in miners’ BTC holdings retracing as selling cools.

Analyzing miners’ overall share of the BTC supply, meanwhile, journalist Colin Wu argued that their position was not necessarily significant.

“It is estimated that Bitcoin miners currently hold a maximum of 820,000 Bitcoins, a minimum of 120,000 Bitcoins, only 1% to 4% of the Bitcoin circulation, even if listed mining companies sell production in June this year 350%, the impact has also weakened,” part of Twitter comments read over the weekend.

Sentiment predicted to fall to 2022 lows

It is no secret that cold feet is the name of the game when it comes to crypto sentiment this quarter.

Related: Bitcoin still lacks this on-chain signal for BTC bull market — David Puell

Thanks to FTX and now Binance, there is a distinct sense of doom hanging over social media, and price action across crypto assets has yet to paint a different picture.

That said, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is performing markedly better than expected, still sitting above its lowest “extreme greed” bracket.

At 29/100, it could even be said that the Index is somewhat out of touch with the mood.

For Crypto Tony, however, that will be short lived, with the Index returning to this year’s lows of just 6/100 in 2023.

“When we are in extreme fear, it is seen as a good buy zone. If we are in extreme greed, it is a sell zone. Basing off human psychology,” part of comments explained.

“Back in June we hit 6 ‼️ I expect us to revisit that next year.”

Fear & Greed exited “extreme fear” at the end of November, and has yet to return, hitting a high of 31 on Dec. 15 — its best performance since Nov. 8.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.