Sự sụp đổ FTX tiếp tục làm tăng lo ngại về sự lây lan trong không gian tiền điện tử khi các nhà đầu tư chờ đợi để nghe về các doanh nghiệp có thể phải đối mặt với sức nóng. Một trong những cái tên marquee nằm dưới vòng tròn nghi ngờ là Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), đã chứng kiến sự chiết khấu của nó đối với giá Bitcoin (BTC) đạt mức kỷ lục khoảng 50%.
Traders hate uncertainty and shy away from investing during these periods. That could be one of the reasons for a lack of buying interest in Bitcoin even after the sharp fall in its price. The Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which had seen its popularity soar during the bull phase, is coming under increasing criticism after the deviation between Bitcoin’s price and its projected price hit levels never seen before.
Điều này có cho thấy rằng chủ nghĩa bi quan đã đạt đến một cực đoan hay chỉ là mô hình S2F có thiếu sót?
Trong giai đoạn giảm, xu hướng chung đang giảm nhưng luôn có những túi sức mạnh có thể cung cấp cơ hội giao dịch cho các nhà đầu tư chỉ dài. Tuy nhiên, các cuộc tăng giá trong thị trường gấu là ngắn ngủi, do đó các nhà giao dịch có thể xem xét đặt lợi nhuận gần mức kháng cự mạnh.
Hãy nhìn vào biểu đồ của năm loại tiền điện tử có thể cố gắng tăng điểm trong ngắn hạn.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin continues to trade inside the tight range between $16,229 and $17,190. Generally, periods of tight consolidation are followed by an increase in volatility.
trung bình di chuyển xuống dốc và chỉ số sức mạnh tương đối (RSI) trong vùng âm cho thấy đường đi của kháng cự ít nhất là đi xuống. Nếu giá phá vỡ dưới $16,229, mức thấp trong ngày 9 tháng 11 là $15,588 có thể bị đe dọa. Một sự phá vỡ và đóng cửa dưới mức hỗ trợ này có thể báo hiệu sự nối lại của xu hướng giảm. Mức hỗ trợ tiếp theo là $12,200.
If bulls want to avoid a further decline, they will have to push and sustain the price above the breakdown level of $17,622. Such a move will suggest strong demand at lower levels. The pair could then climb to the psychological level of $20,000.
Cặp BTC/USDT đã giao dịch gần đường trung bình động, đã đi ngang. Điều này cho thấy cặp này đã bước vào trạng thái cân bằng khi cả người mua và người bán đều chưa quyết định về động thái định hướng tiếp theo.
Tuy nhiên, sự không chắc chắn này không có khả năng tiếp tục lâu dài. Nếu giá giảm xuống dưới $16,229, áp lực bán có thể tăng đà và cặp này có thể giảm xuống $15,588. Nếu hỗ trợ này nhường chỗ, cặp tiền có thể bắt đầu xu hướng giảm tiếp theo.
Ngược lại, nếu giá tăng và phá vỡ trên $17,190, nó sẽ cho thấy phạm vi chặt chẽ hiện tại đã được sử dụng bởi những người mua để tích lũy. Cặp này sau đó có thể tăng lên $18,200 và sau đó lên $18,730.
TẤN/USDT
Toncoin (TON) has recovered sharply from its June low and managed to hold on to a large part of the gains. This suggests that traders are in no hurry to dump their positions at higher levels.
Cặp TON/USDT đã hình thành một tam giác đối xứng, thường đóng vai trò như một mô hình tiếp nối. Cả hai đường trung bình đang dần dốc lên và RSI nằm trong vùng tích cực, cho thấy một lợi thế nhỏ đối với những con bò.
If the price rebounds off the 20-day exponential moving average ($1.65), the bulls will try to drive the price above the triangle. If they can pull it off, the pair could rally to $2.15 and thereafter climb toward the target objective of $2.87.
Alternatively, if the price slips below the 20-day EMA, the pair could drop to the 50-day simple moving average ($1.50) and then to the support line.
The pair is facing stiff resistance at $1.80. Repeated failure to sustain the price above this level may have tempted short-term traders to book profits. The bears are trying to capitalize on this situation and sink the price below the 50-SMA. If this support cracks, the pair could dive to $1.55.
Conversely, if the price rebounds off the current level, the bulls will again try to scale the wall at $1.80. The repeated retest of a resistance level tends to weaken it. A close above this resistance could open the doors for a possible rally to $2.
CHZ/USDT
Chiliz (CHZ) is attempting to form an inverse head and shoulders pattern, which will complete on a break and close above the neckline. If that happens, it may signal the start of a new uptrend.
The pattern target of the reversal formation is $0.54 but the bears are unlikely to give up easily. They are aggressively defending the neckline. If the price breaks below the 50-day SMA ($0.21), the CHZ/USDT pair could decline to $0.18 and subsequently to $0.14.
Alternatively, if the price bounces off the current level, buyers will again attempt to propel the pair above the neckline and gain control.
The flattening moving averages and the RSI just below the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears. Hence, it is better to wait for the price to breakout before establishing fresh positions.
The pair turned down sharply from $0.27 and the bears have pulled the price below the moving averages. If the price sustains below the 50-SMA, the pair could drop to $0.20. That could put the bears in the driver’s seat.
On the other hand, if the price turns up from the current level and rises above the 20-EMA, it will suggest that traders are viewing the dips as a buying opportunity. The pair could then rise to $0.26 and later to $0.28. Buyers will have to drive the price above this level to challenge the resistance at $0.30.
Related: FTX funds on the move as thief converts thousands of ETH into Bitcoin
QNT/USDT
Although Quant (QNT) has corrected sharply in the past few days, it is attempting to take support and bounce off the support line. This indicates demand at lower levels.
The downsloping 20-day EMA ($128) indicates advantage to bears but the RSI is trying to form a positive divergence. This suggests that the selling pressure could be easing.
Buyers will have to propel and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA to indicate that the corrective phase may be over. The QNT/USDT pair could then rise to the 50-day SMA ($151) and thereafter to $180.
This positive view could invalidate in the near term if the price continues lower and breaks below the uptrend line. The pair could then drop to $87 and later to $79.
The recovery in the pair is facing selling near the downtrend line. This suggests that bears are active at higher levels. The bears have pulled the price below the moving averages and will try to extend the decline to $105 and then to $94.
To invalidate this negative view, the bulls will have to kick and sustain the price above the downtrend line. The pair could then rise to $125 where the bears may mount a strong defense. If buyers overcome this barrier, the up-move may reach $136.
TWT/USDT
While most major cryptocurrencies extended their downtrend in the past few days, Trust Wallet Token (TWT) has moved in the opposite direction and risen sharply. This indicates outperformance in the near term.
The TWT/USDT pair soared from $1.03 on Nov. 10 to $2.73 on Nov. 14, a 165% rally within a short time. That pushed the RSI deep into the overbought territory, suggesting a minor correction or consolidation in the near term and that is what happened.
The pair is finding support near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $1.88 but the bulls are struggling to push the price above $2.45. This suggests the pair may consolidate between $1.81 and $2.45 for a few days.
Both moving averages are sloping up and the RSI remains in the positive territory, indicating that bulls have the advantage. If buyers drive the price above the $2.45 to $2.73 resistance zone, the pair could resume its uptrend. This positive view could invalidate on a break and close below the 20-day EMA ($1.70).
The bears pulled the price below the 50-SMA but they are struggling to keep the pair down. This suggests strong buying at lower levels. If buyers push the price above the 20-EMA, the pair could rise to the downtrend line.
A break above this level could clear the path for a possible rally to $2.45. This remains the key hurdle for the bulls to overcome. If they succeed in breaking it, the pair may retest $2.73.
On the downside, a slide below $1.92 could result in a decline to $1.81. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break below it could tilt the advantage in favor of the bears.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.