Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week in an unmistakably bullish position as it passes $28,000.
Crypto markets continue to climb on the back of the banking crisis, which still rages in the United States and abroad — where will they go next?
Sau một tuần hỗn loạn cho thị trường vĩ mô và kết quả là tăng mạnh, Bitcoin và altcoins đang vòng quanh mức, mà một số đã không thấy trong chín tháng.
Thị trường gấu 2022 đang cảm thấy như một ký ức ngày càng xa xôi khi mức kháng cự cũ sụt giảm và những con bò cố gắng củng cố hỗ trợ mới được tái chiếm.
Tuần này, như cuối cùng, có tất cả các loại rào cản tiềm năng cần vượt qua – Cục Dự trữ Liên bang sẽ quyết định thay đổi lãi suất tiếp theo và dữ liệu kinh tế vĩ mô mới sẽ giảm.
Thị trường có thể sẽ ổn định như là một kết quả, và bất kỳ sự kiện bất ngờ hơn nữa từ ngành ngân hàng sẽ chỉ làm tăng thêm sự bất ổn.
Đồng thời, hệ sinh thái riêng của Bitcoin sẽ trở nên mạnh mẽ hơn bao giờ hết khi các nguyên tắc cơ bản của mạng lưới khởi động lên mức cao mới mọi thời đại.
Cointelegraph xem xét năm trong số các hiện tượng chính để theo dõi khi nói đến hành động giá BTC trong tuần tới.
Chu kỳ tăng lãi suất của Fed nghi ngờ
The macro event of the week is undeniably the March 22 Fed decision on interest rate hikes — or lack of them.
Ủy ban Thị trường Mở Liên bang (FOMC) phải đối mặt với một thách thức gay gắt đối với chính sách thắt chặt định lượng (QT) hiện tại của mình trong mười tám tháng qua.
The unfolding banking crisis has put into doubt the Fed’s ability to keep raising interest rates, a policy which commentators argue was the death knell for struggling regional banks.
Tuy nhiên, Fed đang bị bắt giữa một tảng đá và một nơi cứng. Tăng lãi suất sẽ giữ lạm phát trong kiểm soát nhưng tiếp tục trừng phạt nền kinh tế, có thể mở ra một làn sóng mới của thất bại ngân hàng.
“FOMC tuần tới đang chuẩn bị trở thành một trong những điều thú vị nhất trong một thời gian, không ai thực sự đồng ý về những gì sẽ xảy ra”, kỹ sư và nhà giao dịch Tree of Alpha tóm tắt.
“Tỷ lệ nghiêng về phía 25bps, nhưng đó là một ký tự đại diện. Lập kế hoạch khao khát =50 bps như chơi an toàn.”
According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, consensus as of March 20 favored the Fed hiking by 25 basis points, rather than pausing hikes altogether. The week prior, Goldman Sachs had predicted that rates would plateau, while Nomura even forecast a rate cut.
“Tuần này, quyết định lãi suất của Fed tháng Ba được dự đoán dài đưa ra. Hiện nay, thị trường đang định giá 62% cơ hội tăng lãi suất 25 bps. Tuy nhiên, thị trường cũng giảm lãi suất 100 bps vào tháng Mười Hai”, tài liệu bình luận tài chính, The Kobeissi Letter, đã viết một phần phân tích về lộ trình tăng lãi suất dài hạn.
Kobeissi và những người khác cũng đặt câu hỏi làm thế nào các cổ phiếu ngân hàng đang gặp khó khăn sẽ phản ứng tại Wall Street mở cửa tiếp theo, với những động thái mới nhất của chính phủ vào cuối tuần.
These included a buyout of Credit Suisse, the European banking giant, which saw a particularly violent reaction to the U.S. meltdown.
“Credit Suisse, $CS, was worth $10 billion a month ago and sold for pennies on the Dollar,” Kobeissi continued about fellow bank UBS purchasing Credit Suisse and getting $100 billion in government liquidity.
“The government said $CS had ‘serious risk of bankruptcy.’ A shareholder vote was bypassed. Regulators knew it was a matter of hours for bankruptcy. This deal was made out of desperation.”
Bitcoin spot price eyes $30,000
With that, the mood on Bitcoin and crypto markets has understandably taken a fresh turn for the better as the week begins.
At the time of writing, BTC/USD traded above $28,400, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
Already at nine-month highs, the pair managed to beat out bears during a consolidation period last week to return to target levels not seen in almost a year.
Chief among these is $30,000, a psychologically significant level surrounded by considerable historical liquidity. For monitoring resource Material Indicators and others, meanwhile, a key support level to hold is the 200-week moving average (MA).
#FireCharts shows $30M in #BTC bid liquidity consolidated and moved down to defend the 200-Week MA. This is a KEY LEVEL for bulls looking for full candle bodies above the 200 WMA to call it a bull breakout. If the W candle closes below it, hope of a confirmation next week is lost pic.twitter.com/0doqQWchTQ
— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) March 19, 2023
Popular trader Crypto Tony focused on $27,700 to support the bull case and potential for an attack on $30,000.
“$27,700 ensured we are now in the next range between $27,700 – $31,000. Using $27,700 as a level that bulls need to hold to sustain a move up to $30,000 level,” he tweeted.
“Interesting week for sure. My stop loss on my main long remains at $25,500.”
In fresh analysis, meanwhile, fellow trader Crypto Chase highlighted $28,500 as a potential short entry, while also entertaining a “somewhat likely” bull case in which selling only kicks in above $33,000.
“Please note that I am not abandoning the idea of 28.5K~ shorts. These may still present a great opportunity around FOMC this Wednesday. At the moment though, I cannot imagine an immediate local top,” he explained.
“I think a rejection could occur there and I’ll still look for the trade, but for those who attempt to hold a 28.5K short back to 12K may end up stopped out in that 33K liquidity pool.”
Analyst heralds end of bear market
For some analyzing the long-term picture, however, Bitcoin has already broken out of a bear market in place since the comedown from its all-time highs and the start of Fed tightening in late 2021.
The weekly close came in at just above $28,000, making it Bitcoin’s highest since early June, 2022.
For trader, analyst and podcast host Scott Melker, known as “The Wolf of All Streets,” this has clear implications.
“The bear market is officially over,” he proclaimed on the basis of the weekly chart data.
“$BTC made it’s first higher high ($25,212) since the all time high . That confirms a new bullish trend. Price can still go down, but that would be a new trend, not a continuation of the previous bear market. Congrats everyone.”
Melker linked to a similar post from August 2019, just after BTC/USD had passed $13,000 in a comeback from the pit of its previous bear market.
Equally buoyant about weekly timeframes is trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who continues to eye a disintegration of Bitcoin’s “macro downtrend.”
Mission Complete#BTC finally challenges the Macro Downtrend again and breaks out from the Macro Range and breaks the Macro Downtrend$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/m90xhW3QM6
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) March 19, 2023
On quarterly timeframes, Rekt Capital is monitoring a “bullish engulfing” event in the making, something which has triggered significant upside in and of itself in the past.
New all-time highs due for Bitcoin difficulty
In a classic move, Bitcoin’s network fundamentals are refusing to abandon their trip to the moon.
The latest estimates from BTC.com and MiningPoolStats show that both hash rate and difficulty are in “up only” mode this month.
Difficulty is set to adjust upwards 3.26% in the coming days, making it almost 45 trillion.
Hash rate hit a local peak on March 13, but is now trending upwards once again as miners respond to the latest price action.
Bitcoin hash rate just casually reaching new all-time highs week after week pic.twitter.com/bYIpO0puvs
— Will Clemente (@WClementeIII) March 18, 2023
Among miners, however, a divergence is playing out. On a rolling 30-day basis, miners’ BTC balances continue to decline, according to data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.
The most greed since Bitcoin price was $69,000
There may still be reason to be afraid of the current bullish surge in Bitcoin and crypto more broadly.
Related: Bitcoin levels to watch as BTC price eyes highest weekly close in 9 months
A look at sentiment data suggests that the majority of the market is becoming overly confident in the good times continuing.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which uses a basket of factors to produce a normalized sentiment score for crypto, is now at 66/100, firmly in its “greed” zone and its highest since November 2021.
Its warnings are being corroborated by social media users. A survey from research firm Santiment, which has garnered almost 15,000 responses, shows that most believe that BTC/USD will break $30,000 as the next major crypto market event.
“Crowd bullishness is doubling up bearishness for crypto’s top 2 assets,” Santiment commented about the results.
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
